The first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs is almost complete, with only a handful of series lingering (go Flames!). At this point, the sports writers and commentators whip out what I call “the historical ass chomper” statistic – inevitably history should come back to bite a given team in the ass.
Take, for example, this article on TSN’s website and this one from the CBC which set the stage for Game 7 of the Habs–Bruins series.
The CBC article notes that:
In over 80 years of existence, the Bruins have never come back from 2-0 and 3-1 deficits, while Montreal as a franchise has never seen a 3-1 lead fall out of its grasp.
The Canadian Press on TSN.ca reports a plethora of those “historical ass chomper” stats such as:
- NHL teams have trailed 3-1 in a best-of-seven series 224 times and have come back to win the series 20 times, or nine per cent of the time.
- Since the NHL introduced the best-of-seven format in 1939, the home team has won 76 of the 120 playoff series that have gone to seven games, or 63%.
- Boston in 0-3 in Game 7s played away from home.
- Montreal is 10-8 all-time in Game 7s, while Boston is 9-7.
Mathemtically, Montreal should take the series tonight. My opinion is that this makes the setup of the game more exciting. If your team’s on the benficial side of the stat, you as a fan feel confident in your team’s ability to lock up the series. On the other hand, you appropriate some sort of feisty underdog mentality in the case where history’s teeth are mere seconds away from taking a chunk out of your team’s collective gluteus maximus. But like most thing’s in life, nothing is a sure bet. This stat may be a resonable predictor; stats are supposed to be because that’s the whole reason for statistical analysis – duh! But stats don’t govern willpower, team chemistry, morale, mitochondrial performance in athlete’s cells and the many other factors that influence the outcome of a game. However, stats are easier to digest in the pre-game show. Now excuse me while I seek cover from Montreal fans who’d prefer that I shut up at this point in time.
